INDIANAPOLIS — Big Ten programs qualified for the four-team College Football Playoff nine times in the format’s 10 years, including both Ohio State and Michigan in 2022. If the 12-team CFP format that debuts this fall had been in place during that decade, the league’s number of participants would have swelled to 29.
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The biggest hypothetical beneficiary? Penn State. The Nittany Lions never appeared in the four-team CFP, even after winning the Big Ten championship in 2016. Had the 12-team tournament existed over that time frame, Penn State’s CFP Top 25 finishes would have seen them qualify six times, including both of the last two seasons.
Instead, Penn State registered five New Year’s Six bowl appearances over that span, locked in a purgatory of good-but-not-satisfying football. Now the Nittany Lions — and many of their conference colleagues — will have an expanded opportunity at a national title even if they don’t win a Big Ten championship.
“We’ve been talking a lot to our team about understanding the difference of a possible 17-game season like you better understand what that means,” Penn State coach James Franklin told BTN. “Not only, ‘OK, what do we (have) to do to get into the playoffs,’ but what can we do to get into the playoffs and be in an advantageous situation?”
The expanded Playoff will provide clarity for Penn State and many Big Ten programs on what defines a successful season, unlike the ambiguity of a non-Playoff bowl appearance.
“Right now the goal is to get in the playoffs,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. “It’s the next goal for this year. Be one of 12.”
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The days of celebrating a major bowl invitation have faded for most top programs. Since the four-team CFP began in 2014, the remaining New Year’s Six games retained some of their prestige, but their appeal and importance to fans, media and participants waned over time. No. 10 Michigan State and No. 12 Pittsburgh were matched in the 2021 Peach Bowl to cap off breakthrough seasons for both programs, but Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett, Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III and other key players opted out. Had the Panthers and Spartans met in a CFP matchup, it’s possible both stars would have chosen to participate.
Current Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell guided Cincinnati into the four-team CFP field in 2021. It was the first time a non-power conference program qualified, and it came one year after the Bearcats finished an unbeaten season ranked No. 8. Fickell also served as an assistant at Ohio State for 15 years, during which time the Buckeyes made the national championship game four time. There’s heavy interest in every Ohio State game, but Fickell noticed a change in the stakes.
“Just being in the playoffs those several times and then being in some of those really good bowl games that weren’t the playoffs, there was an incredibly different vibe,” Fickell said. “It’s not like the game is different, right? It’s not like it’s because the crowd is louder. No, but it’s the coverage. It’s the attention.
“It’s going to do a lot of different things for us. It’s going to help hopefully with a lot of the guys that are opting out. You’re in the playoffs, you have an opportunity. It’s going to alleviate a lot of those things. It’s going to create a greater buzz over a longer period of time, and ultimately give a lot more people an opportunity to be playing their best ball at the end of the year and have a chance to win it all.”
The Buckeyes had seven appearances in the 10 years of the four-team CFP but would have earned trips every season with a 12-team field. Michigan’s three bids would have jumped to five. But for programs outside blue-blood status, where great seasons ended in Big Ten championship heartbreak, a Playoff appearance could redefine legacies.
Iowa and Wisconsin had unbeaten seasons halted in the Big Ten title game by a combined nine points during the four-team era and were left out of the field. As the No. 5 team in 2015, Iowa would have played host to AAC champion Houston in a mid-December first-round tilt. In 2017, the No. 6 Badgers would have faced Washington at Camp Randall Stadium. Wisconsin would have hosted opening-round games three times from 2016 through 2019. Instead, neither school qualified for the CFP.
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Pac-12 teams combined for three CFP appearances (Washington two, Oregon one) over the last 10 years, but with a 12-team field, the league’s total would have soared to 17. The Huskies and Ducks each would have made four appearances, while USC would have made three.
Michigan State secured its lone CFP spot in 2015 with a three-point win against Iowa in the Big Ten title game. In a 12-team field, the Spartans also would have qualified in 2014 and 2021. In its best season in more than 50 years, Indiana would have participated as a No. 11 seed in 2020. Instead, the Hoosiers played in the Outback Bowl.
The New Year’s Six bowls will become even more relevant under the new playoff structure. The top four conference champions receive first-round byes, while the bottom eight squads (seven at-large teams and the fifth highest ranked conference champion) play games on campuses Dec. 20-21 this year. On Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, the four conference champions will face the four first-round winners at the Peach, Fiesta, Rose and Sugar Bowls. Then on Jan. 9-10, the Orange and Cotton Bowls host semifinal games. Atlanta will host the title game on Jan. 20.
GO DEEPERBig Ten commish Tony Petitti 'open-minded' on judging, expanding 12-team CFPFerentz has guided Iowa to eight 10-win seasons, and an expanded field would have led to CFP trips in 2002, 2009 and 2015. The Hawkeyes were on the edge in 2003, 2004, 2020 and 2021. Ferentz considered the four-team Playoff implemented in 2014 a half-measure and would have preferred a larger field right away, but not because his team would have benefitted in 2015.
“What I didn’t like about going from two to four, it really de-emphasized the importance of the bowl structure,” Ferentz said. “There’s so many good stories in college football. If we can win 12, or as many as possible out of 12, and if we deserve it, we’ll get a good reward and whatever that may be. And it’s probably going to be different this year than it was, two years ago or three years ago, but the challenge is winning. That’s a hard thing.”
For Big Ten teams that finished on the wrong side of the four-team Playoff bubble, their seasons often faded into history and ended modestly. While Fickell holds that “nobody’s going to define what success looks like,” even a major bowl victory didn’t provide a spotlight to those 12- or 13-win seasons like a Playoff bid will.
“When it’s expanded to 12, there’s just a sense of throughout the season that we can still get to that point,” said Northwestern coach David Braun, who helped North Dakota State win two FCS titles as defensive coordinator. “The Las Vegas Bowl this year was an incredible experience for our guys. But there’s still something different about the thought of as the season winds down, there’s still chance to get to the playoffs where the national championship is still on the table. It’s pretty special.”
(Photo: Joe Robbins / Getty Images)
Scott Dochterman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Iowa Hawkeyes. He previously covered Iowa athletics for the Cedar Rapids Gazette and Land of 10. Scott also worked as an adjunct professor teaching sports journalism at the University of Iowa.
